#2015Elections Expect violence, Jonathan likely to win, Ex-US Ambassador says

Campbell stated this in a report titled ‘Nigeria’s 2015
Presidential Election: Contingency Planning
Memorandum Update,’ which was published and
released by the US Council on Foreign Relations.

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A former US Ambassador to Nigeria, John Campbell ,
has warned that Nigeria is likely to experience large
scale violence as a result of the upcoming general
elections.
Campbell stated this in a report titled ‘Nigeria’s 2015
Presidential Election: Contingency Planning
Memorandum Update » ,’ which was published and
released by the US Council on Foreign Relations.
Campbell also predicts that incumbent, President
Goodluck Jonathan is likely to beat strongest opponent,
Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress
(APC) at the polls.
“The upcoming elections are a rematch of the 2011
elections between the incumbent President Goodluck
Jonathan (a southern Christian) and Muhammadu
Buhari (a northern Muslim and a former military chief).
Tension between Washington and Abuja is higher than
in 2011, largely over how to respond to the radical
Islamist insurgent group, Boko Haram, which is steadily
gaining strength in northeast Nigeria,” the report read.
“The APC is stronger than its predecessors (Action
Congress of Nigeria and Congress for Progressives
Change) and reflects a splintering of the political
classes. The government’s inability to defeat Boko
Haram, the economic hardships brought on by falling
oil prices, and a growing public perception that the
Jonathan administration is weak have fueled support
for the All Progressives Congress. Though the APC’s
voter base is in the North, it enjoys support all over the
country, unlike the opposition in 2011,” it continues.
Campbell however notes that Jonathan is at an
advantage due to the fact that he is “is at the centre
of extensive patronage networks; he has access to the
government’s oil revenue; and he and his party largely
control the election machinery and ballot-counting
infrastructure.”
“It is uncertain whether any provisions will be made for
voters in the three northern states placed under a state
of emergency because of Boko Haram, as well as the
estimated one million people displaced by the
insurgency. These displaced voters would likely support
Buhari and the APC; their exclusion would benefit
Jonathan and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Thus despite the strength of the opposition, Jonathan
remains the likely—but not certain—winner,” Campbell
stated.
The former Ambassador also warned that the elections
could “precipitate violence that could destabilize
Nigeria.”
Campbell was ambassador of Nigerian from 2004 to
2007 and in 2010 authored a book about the country
titled “Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink”.

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